Making decisions when everything is affected by uncertainty
In this neat two-parter, nPlan Data Science Lead Gerard Cardoso dives into nPlan's world beating dataset of past project schedules to explore the paradox of project delivery, the impact of 'long tails' on activity and project forecasting, and the impact of using a variety of distributions on the risk management process. Get it while it's hot!
The impact of extreme events on project delay
In early 2022, nPlan conducted a study on close to 500,000 schedules and found that around 80% of projects are delayed.
PERT distribution leads to overconfidence in outcomes
In my last post, I explored the phenomenon that while most activities on projects are delivered on time, most projects are delivered late. I introduced the concept of long-tails in distributions and how it’s the activities that reside in these long-tails that cause most of the delay in projects.
Latest blog posts
Diversity in Risk Management
As Pride Month 2022 draws to a close, nPlan Principal Risk Engineer Richard Bendall-Jones discusses the importance of diversity, equity and inclusivity to effective risk management
What I wish I knew about ML infrastructure when I was a researcher
Join Carlos Ledezma, Product Manager at nPlan, on an exciting journey to optimize your Machine Learning projects. Learn how Docker can revolutionize your ML infrastructure, making code portable, reproducible, and easily deployable. Explore practical examples and expert insights to unlock the full potential of Docker in ML engineering. Dive into this blog now to elevate your career in Machine Learning!
Why AI is more accurate than humans at probabilistic risk forecasting
Alan Mosca and Georgia Stillwell explore how machine learning surpasses human expertise in risk forecasting. They discuss the limitations of human judgment in traditional risk management, emphasizing overconfidence and inaccuracy in estimating probabilities.
nPlan Co-founder and CTO Alan Mosca introduces nPlanet
nPlanet panel event - The New Trust Equation in Construction
Read our latest research
Data-Driven Schedule Risk Forecasting for Construction Mega-Projects
V Hovhannisyan, P Zachares, A Mosca, C Ledezma, Y Grushka-Cockayne, AACE International Conference 2023
A graph-based approach for unpacking construction sequence analysis to evaluate schedules
Y Hong, H Xie, V Hovhannisyan, I BrilakisAdvanced Engineering Informatics 52, 101625
On Forecasting Project Activity Durations with Neural Networks
P Zachares, V Hovhannisyan, C Ledezma, J Gante, A Mosca International Conference on Engineering Applications of Neural Networks, 103-114
Determining Construction Method Patterns to Automate and Optimise Scheduling–A Graph-based Approach
Y Hong, V Hovhannisyan, H Xie, I Brilakis2021 European Conference on Computing in Construction