Making decisions when everything is affected by uncertainty
In this neat two-parter, nPlan Data Science Lead Gerard Cardoso dives into nPlan's world beating dataset of past project schedules to explore the paradox of project delivery, the impact of 'long tails' on activity and project forecasting, and the impact of using a variety of distributions on the risk management process. Get it while it's hot!
The impact of extreme events on project delay
In early 2022, nPlan conducted a study on close to 500,000 schedules and found that around 80% of projects are delayed.
PERT distribution leads to overconfidence in outcomes
In my last post, I explored the phenomenon that while most activities on projects are delivered on time, most projects are delivered late. I introduced the concept of long-tails in distributions and how it’s the activities that reside in these long-tails that cause most of the delay in projects.