© 2024 nPlan Limited. All Rights Reserved.
HQ: Second Home Spitalfields, NPLAN LIMITED, 68-80 Hanbury Street, London, E1 5JL
Tel: +44 (0)20 8051 4542
Independent study
CX Tech Limited has applied to build the CX Technology Campus: eight 120MW data centre buildings beside the former Chapelcross nuclear power station near Annan. Working only from the planning application, the EIA report and the public record, we used Schedule Studio to build a 754-activity schedule. We forecast it with nPlan's model, trained on more than 750,000 real construction schedules, and ran six scenarios. The 35-page study sets out what that forecast shows and which decisions move it.
Modelled completion
date in nPlan's reconstructed schedule
if the modelled plan runs as it stands
On-time chance
Enter your email and we will send you both files.
Schedule Studio generated the schedule from a scope brief and expanded the building packages into full detail. A planner normalised the eight packages. Insights produced the forecast, found the 37 activities that move the finish most, and ran six scenarios. We drew no part of the chain by hand.
1
The planning application and the EIA report define the scope. The NDA masterplan, the Site Stakeholder Group papers and the Borderlands funding announcements fix the land, the grid and the enabling works. The trade press and the Scottish Parliament record set the consenting climate.
2
The schedule runs to fifteen phases, 705 activities, 829 logic links and 23 milestones, with no open ends. Eight identical building packages start ten months apart on a start-to-start stagger.
3
Each milestone has P10, P50, P80 and P90 dates from a model trained on more than 750,000 real construction schedules. The data date is 8 October 2026.
4
Three mitigation cases, one substation stress test and two consenting delays. We read each one at the level of seven themes, from consenting to close-out, not one activity at a time.
+44 days
P50 behind the modelled completion
Our reconstructed schedule targets 7 March 2035. Projected forward with no intervention, it reaches a P50 of 20 April 2035 and a P80 of 19 July 2035. The campus meets the plan date in 32 simulations out of 100. That is a projection of the plan, not a prediction of what CX Tech will do.
86 days
added during site establishment at P50
The campus is a conveyor. Each building starts ten months after the previous one, so the first piling rig sets the date of the last energisation. Site establishment adds 86 days at P50 and 97 at P80, more than every other stage combined. The seven buildings after DC1 add ten days in six years.
+342 days
on completion if Ministers call the application in
If the council waits for national guidance, completion moves 96 days at P50. A Ministerial call-in moves it 342 days, to a P50 of 27 March 2036. Nothing downstream absorbs it. The substation stress test moves the finish by two days, because that chain has float.
50%
chance of the plan date with every threat mitigated
Mitigating every threat Insights found at 60% effectiveness brings P50 to 8 March 2035, one day late, and leaves P80 at 70 days late. To move P80 to the plan, the plan itself has to change: the stagger, the sequence or the consenting strategy. The study sets out seven decisions in the order their windows close.
Q1 2027
window for the first checkpoint
No milestone has been reached yet. The first public checkpoint is the PiP decision. A decision notice before the end of March 2027 is consistent with the baseline. A decision in the second or third quarter of 2027 is the council-waits scenario. A call-in notification puts the programme on the severe path. The study lists seven checkpoints with the date each revision projects for them.
We built everything on this page in a few days, working only from public information. With your own P6 or Microsoft Project schedule, the forecast, the scenarios and the checkpoints update every time you report progress. Your team sees where the risk sits while there is still time to act. If you would like to see it on one of your projects, talk to us.
nPlan produced this study without any involvement from, data from, or endorsement by the developer, the landowner, the council, the network operator or any contractor. That means CX Tech Limited, NDA Properties, Nuclear Restoration Services, Dumfries and Galloway Council and SP Energy Networks. Every input is public. Dates, durations and logic are nPlan's own estimates, not the developer's programme. Project and company names belong to their owners and identify only the subject of the study.
© 2024 nPlan Limited. All Rights Reserved.
HQ: Second Home Spitalfields, NPLAN LIMITED, 68-80 Hanbury Street, London, E1 5JL
Tel: +44 (0)20 8051 4542